SPORT
BOMBS AWAY: Five Live Long shots to Die For, A 2009 Kentucky Derby Preview
/ Pete Hausler
05.01.09
“Twenty fucking five to one
Me gambling days are done
I bet on a horse called the Bottle of Smoke
And my horse won.”
—From “Bottle of Smoke” The Pogues
Just after 6 p.m. on Saturday May 2, twenty horses will load in two starting gates under the twin spires of Churchill Downs, while millions around the world watch on television, while one-hundred-thousand-odd bourbon-sotted bettors watch live, holding their mint-julep breath until that starting bell rings. The gates burst open to a roar and a trill, and even people who have never placed a bet in their life, who don’t know a quarter-horse from a quarter-crack, are at least vaguely aware that the race is going off.
So, why should you care? Well, because you can make a lot of money on Derby day. The Derby is always loaded with live long shots, or ‘overlays’ in the vernacular. An overlay is a very good horse who has been overlooked at the betting window for various or no good reason, and therefore his odds are higher than they should be. In assessing a race, an overlay is a horse who seems to have a better chance of winning than his odds indicate.
Why are there so many long shots in this year’s Derby? The same reason there are every year: Because everyone wants to run their three-year-old in the Derby. There are a maximum of 20 spots, and any given year, 15 or so of those horses have a legitimate shot to win it. And because, mathematically, they can’t all be favorites, a lot of those horses will be overlooked, and their odds will rise. Which doesn’t mean they are bad horses. It just means that the favorites have gotten more attention. There is only one way to cash a big ticket big: show a little fortitude at the betting window by showing tough love to the vaunted favorite(s).
Favorites always look good on paper—that’s why they’re favorites. The last two years have been kind to the favorites, with Big Brown romping in last year’s Derby, and Street Sense the year before that. But this year I’m betting that we’re going to cycle back around to a long shot winning. Overall, in the last 25 years, only Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones (2004) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) have won as the chalk. The blanket of Roses in this time period has usually gone to a long shot. Why?
A variety of factors, but mostly because three year old horses are still learning the game, are still maturing physically and mentally, and therefore tend to run inconsistently from race to race. One thing to always remember when betting horses: they are athletes––splendid athletes––and like human athletes, subject to under- or overachieving, to monster runs or dismal failures. Maybe a horse wakes up one day and doesn’t feel well, or has a nagging injury, maybe he loves or hates a particular track. To paraphrase Mickey Rourke (paraphrasing “The Mickey Mouse Show”) in the film “Angel Heart:” Derby Day is anything-can-happen day.
Me gambling days are done
I bet on a horse called the Bottle of Smoke
And my horse won.”
—From “Bottle of Smoke” The Pogues
Just after 6 p.m. on Saturday May 2, twenty horses will load in two starting gates under the twin spires of Churchill Downs, while millions around the world watch on television, while one-hundred-thousand-odd bourbon-sotted bettors watch live, holding their mint-julep breath until that starting bell rings. The gates burst open to a roar and a trill, and even people who have never placed a bet in their life, who don’t know a quarter-horse from a quarter-crack, are at least vaguely aware that the race is going off.
So, why should you care? Well, because you can make a lot of money on Derby day. The Derby is always loaded with live long shots, or ‘overlays’ in the vernacular. An overlay is a very good horse who has been overlooked at the betting window for various or no good reason, and therefore his odds are higher than they should be. In assessing a race, an overlay is a horse who seems to have a better chance of winning than his odds indicate.
Why are there so many long shots in this year’s Derby? The same reason there are every year: Because everyone wants to run their three-year-old in the Derby. There are a maximum of 20 spots, and any given year, 15 or so of those horses have a legitimate shot to win it. And because, mathematically, they can’t all be favorites, a lot of those horses will be overlooked, and their odds will rise. Which doesn’t mean they are bad horses. It just means that the favorites have gotten more attention. There is only one way to cash a big ticket big: show a little fortitude at the betting window by showing tough love to the vaunted favorite(s).
Favorites always look good on paper—that’s why they’re favorites. The last two years have been kind to the favorites, with Big Brown romping in last year’s Derby, and Street Sense the year before that. But this year I’m betting that we’re going to cycle back around to a long shot winning. Overall, in the last 25 years, only Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones (2004) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) have won as the chalk. The blanket of Roses in this time period has usually gone to a long shot. Why?
A variety of factors, but mostly because three year old horses are still learning the game, are still maturing physically and mentally, and therefore tend to run inconsistently from race to race. One thing to always remember when betting horses: they are athletes––splendid athletes––and like human athletes, subject to under- or overachieving, to monster runs or dismal failures. Maybe a horse wakes up one day and doesn’t feel well, or has a nagging injury, maybe he loves or hates a particular track. To paraphrase Mickey Rourke (paraphrasing “The Mickey Mouse Show”) in the film “Angel Heart:” Derby Day is anything-can-happen day.